FORCASTR User Guide

Platform Overview

FORCASTR is a professional-grade prediction market intelligence platform designed for Kalshi traders. We provide real-time data, advanced analytics, and whale tracking to help you identify profitable opportunities before they become obvious.

What is FORCASTR?

FORCASTR transforms raw prediction market data into actionable intelligence. Our platform monitors 1000+ Kalshi markets in real-time, tracking every trade, price movement, and unusual activity pattern to give you an edge in prediction market trading.

Quick Start Guide

Get up and running with FORCASTR in minutes. Follow these steps to start tracking whale trades and analyzing prediction markets.

Step 1: Create Your Account

1. Visit forcastr.com and click "Get Started"
2. Sign up with email or use OAuth (Google, Discord)
3. Verify your email address
4. Complete your profile setup

Step 2: Explore the Dashboard

1. Navigate to the Dashboard to see live market data
2. Browse trending markets and recent whale trades
3. Use filters to find markets you're interested in
4. Click on any market to see detailed analytics

Step 3: Set Up Alerts

1. Go to your account settings
2. Configure notification preferences
3. Choose which events trigger alerts (whale trades, unusual activity, price movements)
4. Select your notification method (email, browser notifications)

Step 4: Start Tracking

1. Monitor the live order flow feed for real-time trades
2. Watch for whale trade alerts (trades $10,000+)
3. Check the leaderboard to see top performers
4. Use analytics to identify market trends

Kalshi Alerts

Stay informed with real-time notifications about significant market events, whale trades, and unusual activity across all Kalshi markets.

What Are Kalshi Alerts?

Kalshi Alerts are intelligent notifications triggered by our AI detection system when significant market events occur. These alerts help you catch opportunities the moment they develop, without constantly monitoring the platform.

Alert Types

• Whale Trades: Trades exceeding $10,000 that indicate institutional or smart money movements
• Unusual Activity: Abnormal trading patterns detected by AI (sudden volume spikes, rapid price changes)
• Price Movements: Significant price swings above your configured threshold
• Volume Spikes: Trading volume exceeding normal levels by 200%+
• Market Momentum: Sustained directional movement indicating trend formation

How to Configure Alerts

1. Navigate to Dashboard → Settings → Notifications
2. Enable the alert types you want to receive
3. Set thresholds for each alert type (minimum trade size, price change percentage, etc.)
4. Choose notification delivery methods (email, browser push, in-app)
5. Optionally filter alerts by market category (Politics, Sports, Crypto, Finance)

Alert Delivery

Alerts are delivered through multiple channels:

• In-App Notifications: Real-time alerts displayed in the dashboard (fastest)
• Browser Push: Desktop notifications even when FORCASTR is in the background
• Email Alerts: Detailed email notifications with market context (slight delay)

Whale Tracker

Follow the smart money. Our Whale Tracker identifies and monitors large institutional trades ($10,000+) to help you understand where sophisticated traders are positioning.

What is a "Whale Trade"?

In prediction markets, a "whale" is a trader making exceptionally large bets—typically $10,000 or more in a single trade. These trades often represent:

• Institutional investors with superior research and resources
• Informed traders with insider knowledge or unique insights
• High-conviction bets from experienced market participants
• Smart money positioning ahead of major events

Whale Detection Thresholds

FORCASTR uses a tiered classification system:

• Notable Trade: $2,500 - $10,000 (yellow flag)
• Unusual Activity: $10,000 - $25,000 (orange flag)
• Whale Trade: $25,000+ (red flag with alert)
• Mega Whale: $100,000+ (priority alert with special indicator)

How to Use Whale Tracker

1. Access the Whale Tracker from the main dashboard navigation
2. View real-time feed of all whale trades across Kalshi markets
3. Filter by category, market, trade size, or time period
4. Click on any whale trade to see full market context and analytics
5. Track aggregate whale volume by market to identify where smart money is concentrating

Whale Activity Metrics

For each market, we track:

• Total whale volume (last 24 hours, 7 days, 30 days)
• Number of whale trades
• Directional bias (percentage betting YES vs NO)
• Average whale trade size
• Time distribution (when whales are most active)

Analytics Dashboard

Deep dive into market data with professional-grade analytics tools. Visualize trends, analyze volume patterns, and identify opportunities with institutional-quality insights.

Overview

The Analytics Dashboard provides comprehensive market intelligence through multiple data visualization layers:

Key Analytics Features

1. Market Performance Tracking

Monitor markets across multiple timeframes:

• Real-time price updates (30-second refresh rate)
• 24-hour price change and percentage movement
• 7-day and 30-day performance trends
• All-time high/low tracking

2. Volume Analysis Tools

Understand market participation and liquidity:

• Total volume traded (by time period)
• Volume profile (distribution across price levels)
• Unusual volume detection (AI-flagged spikes)
• Buy/sell volume ratio

3. Sentiment Indicators

Gauge market psychology:

• Order flow imbalance (buying vs selling pressure)
• Large trader positioning (whale directional bias)
• Price momentum score (0-100 scale)
• Community sentiment (from trading patterns)

4. Comparative Analysis

Compare markets side-by-side:

• Multi-market price correlation
• Relative strength comparison
• Category-wide trend analysis
• Performance benchmarking

How to Use Analytics

1. Select any market from the dashboard or search
2. Click "Analytics" to open the detailed view
3. Choose your timeframe (1H, 4H, 1D, 1W, 1M)
4. Toggle between chart types (price, volume, liquidity)
5. Apply filters to focus on specific data points
6. Export data or screenshots for your records

Insider Trading Detector

Our AI-powered Insider Trading Detector identifies suspicious trading patterns that may indicate informed trading ahead of market-moving events.

What is Insider Trading Detection?

In prediction markets, "insider trading" refers to trades made by individuals with non-public information about upcoming events. While prediction markets are designed to aggregate information, unusual pre-event trading patterns can signal that some participants know something others don't.

Detection Algorithms

Our AI analyzes multiple signals to identify potentially informed trading:

• Pre-Event Volume Spikes: Unusual trading activity 24-48 hours before major announcements
• Directional Conviction: Large one-sided trades (all YES or all NO) with high confidence
• New Account Activity: Recently created accounts making immediate large trades
• Perfect Timing: Trades executed immediately before price-moving events
• Cluster Detection: Multiple coordinated trades from different accounts

Suspicious Activity Indicators

Markets are flagged with different risk levels:

• Low Risk (Yellow): Slightly elevated activity, worth monitoring
• Medium Risk (Orange): Multiple unusual patterns detected
• High Risk (Red): Strong signals of potential insider knowledge

How to Interpret Signals

1. Check the Insider Detector feed for flagged markets
2. Review the specific patterns that triggered the alert
3. Examine the timing relative to upcoming events or announcements
4. Look at historical accuracy (how often similar patterns were correct)
5. Consider whether the "insider" pattern makes logical sense

Top Traders

Learn from the best. Our Top Traders feature highlights the most successful and active prediction market participants, allowing you to study their strategies and follow their moves.

What is Top Traders?

Top Traders identifies and ranks the most successful traders on Kalshi based on multiple performance metrics. By studying how these traders operate, you can improve your own prediction market strategies.

Ranking Criteria

Traders are ranked using a weighted scoring system that considers:

• Total Profit: Realized and unrealized gains across all markets
• Win Rate: Percentage of profitable trades (minimum 20 trades to qualify)
• Trade Volume: Total dollar volume traded (indicates activity level)
• Average Position Size: Typical trade size (larger = more confident)
• Market Diversity: Number of different markets traded (generalist vs specialist)
• Consistency: Sustained profitability over multiple time periods

Trader Profiles

Each top trader profile includes:

• Total trades executed and current win rate
• Profit/loss over different timeframes (24h, 7d, 30d, all-time)
• Favorite markets and categories
• Recent trade history (if public)
• Trading style classification (aggressive, conservative, balanced)
• Specialty areas (e.g., Politics expert, Sports bettor, etc.)

How to Use Top Traders

1. Browse the Top Traders leaderboard to find successful traders
2. Filter by category to find specialists in markets you trade
3. Study their trading patterns and position sizing
4. Follow their recent activity to see what they're trading now
5. Set alerts to be notified when top traders make large moves

Leaderboard

Track your progress and compete with other FORCASTR users. The Leaderboard ranks traders based on performance, activity, and contributions to the community.

Leaderboard Categories

We maintain multiple leaderboards to recognize different types of success:

How Leaderboard Rankings Work

Your leaderboard position is determined by:

• Verified Trades: Only trades confirmed through Kalshi API integration count
• Time Period: Separate rankings for daily, weekly, monthly, and all-time
• Minimum Activity: Must have at least 10 trades to appear on leaderboards
• Real-Time Updates: Rankings refresh every hour based on latest trading data

Climbing the Leaderboard

Tips to improve your ranking:

1. Connect your Kalshi account to FORCASTR for automatic trade tracking
2. Focus on consistent profitability rather than occasional big wins
3. Trade across multiple markets to build a diversified record
4. Engage with the community to build your reputation
5. Share insights and trading ideas (without revealing your edge)

Leaderboard Benefits

Being on the leaderboard unlocks:

• Special "Top Trader" badge next to your username
• Priority placement in community discussions
• Increased visibility when you post trading ideas
• Recognition from other traders and potential collaborations
• Access to exclusive top trader channels (coming soon)

Order Flow Analysis

See every trade as it happens. Order Flow Analysis shows you the raw order flow data that powers institutional trading decisions.

What is Order Flow?

Order flow refers to the actual trades being executed in real-time—the buying and selling activity that creates price movements. Unlike price charts which show the result, order flow shows the cause.

Live Order Feed

Our live order feed displays:

• Every trade across all Kalshi markets (updates every 10 seconds)
• Trade size, direction (YES/NO), and price
• Market name and category
• Timestamp (precise to the second)
• Special flags (whale trade, unusual activity, etc.)

Order Flow Metrics

For each market, we calculate:

• Buy/Sell Imbalance: Net buying pressure (positive) or selling pressure (negative)
• Delta: Cumulative difference between buy and sell volume
• Aggressive Buyers/Sellers: Percentage of trades hitting the ask (aggressive buy) vs hitting the bid (aggressive sell)
• Trade Velocity: Number of trades per minute (increased velocity = increased interest)

Advanced Filters

Cut through the noise with powerful filtering tools. Focus on exactly the markets and trades that matter to you.

Available Filters

• Category: Politics, Sports, Crypto, Finance, Entertainment, Other
• Trade Size: Minimum and maximum dollar values
• Price Range: Only show markets within certain probability ranges
• Volume: Filter by total trading volume
• Time Period: Trades from last hour, day, week, etc.
• Direction: Only YES trades, only NO trades, or both
• Special Flags: Whale trades only, unusual activity only, etc.

Saved Filter Presets

Create and save custom filter combinations:

1. Configure your desired filters
2. Click "Save Filter Preset"
3. Name your preset (e.g., "Politics Whales", "Small Cap Opportunities")
4. Access saved presets with one click from the filter menu

Notification Settings

Control how and when you receive alerts. Customize notification preferences to match your trading style.

Notification Channels

• In-App: Real-time alerts displayed in the dashboard
• Browser Push: Desktop notifications even when tab is inactive
• Email: Detailed email summaries (immediate or digest)

Customization Options

• Choose which events trigger notifications
• Set quiet hours (no notifications during specified times)
• Configure digest frequency (hourly, daily summaries instead of real-time)
• Filter notifications by market category
• Set minimum thresholds (only notify for trades above $X)

Trading Tips

Learn from our experience. Here are proven strategies for using FORCASTR's tools to improve your prediction market trading.

General Strategy

• Start small while you learn the platform
• Focus on markets you understand deeply
• Don't chase every alert—be selective
• Keep a trading journal to track your decisions
• Learn from losing trades, not just winners

Using Whale Signals

• Wait for confirmation—one whale trade isn't enough
• Check if the whale's timing makes sense (ahead of events?)
• Look at historical whale accuracy in that market
• Consider position sizing relative to market liquidity

Risk Management

• Never risk more than 2-5% of your capital on a single trade
• Set stop-losses even in prediction markets (exit price)
• Diversify across multiple markets and outcomes
• Keep cash reserves for high-conviction opportunities

Frequently Asked Questions

Is FORCASTR free to use?

FORCASTR offers both free and premium tiers. Free users get access to basic market data and limited alerts. Premium subscribers get real-time data, unlimited alerts, advanced analytics, and priority support.

Do I need a Kalshi account to use FORCASTR?

You can browse FORCASTR data without a Kalshi account, but to execute trades based on our insights, you'll need a Kalshi account. FORCASTR is an analytics platform, not a trading platform.

How accurate are the whale trade alerts?

Whale trades are 100% accurate in the sense that they definitely occurred. However, even whale traders are sometimes wrong. Our data shows whale trades have approximately a 60-65% win rate historically—better than random, but not perfect.

Can I connect my Kalshi account to FORCASTR?

Yes! You can connect via Kalshi API to automatically track your trades, calculate your P/L, and appear on leaderboards. We never have permission to execute trades on your behalf—we only read your trade history.

How often is data updated?

Market data refreshes every 30 seconds. Order flow feed updates every 10 seconds. AI analysis runs every 60 seconds. System latency is typically under 50ms.

What makes FORCASTR different from just using Kalshi directly?

Kalshi shows you markets and allows trading. FORCASTR analyzes those markets to show you where smart money is moving, which markets have unusual activity, historical patterns, whale positioning, and actionable intelligence you can't get from Kalshi alone.